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Ethiopia + 9 more

East Africa Cross Border Trade Bulletin (October 2017, Volume 19)

Attachments

Summary Points

  • Maize grain as usual was the most traded commodity in the region followed by dry beans, rice and then sorghum. See Figure 1.

  • Staple commodity prices especially for maize are expected to remain above last year and five year average prices despite near average harvest in the region with spatial pockets of deficit within and between countries because carryover stocks are low, tightening supplies available for trade.

  • Although Uganda, Ethiopia, and Tanzania (despite regulation of maize grain export) are expected to remain the main sources of maize in the region, outside the region, ample quantities of white maize are available in Zambia and Mexico, and yellow maize in Ukraine at prices lower than the regional prices. Hence the prospects and actual imports of maize from these countries into Kenya may moderate the expected rise in staple grain commodity prices between May and August 2018.

  • Availability of sorghum in the region is still high because of high carryover stocks from the previous above average harvest in Sudan.
    There is high a likelihood that the Sudan stocks will be purchased for food aid distribution in the regions’ northern countries.

  • Local rice production in Tanzania was average, but the carryover stocks are low because of high consumption in the previous marketing year as maize prices increased exceptionally. The prices are expected to trend seasonably but will likely be moderated by increased demand for maize flour has the price for this substitute commodity is trending lower than that of rice.

  • Livestock exports from Ethiopia declined because of the lingering effects of drought, but exports from Somalia increased. Livestock prices are expected to decline seasonably until the second quarter of 2018.