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Mozambique

Mozambique Food Security Outlook Update, August 2017

Attachments

Parts of central semiarid areas likely to be in Crisis during the lean season

KEY MESSAGES

  • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue through September, except in parts of northwestern Sofala Province where long dry spells in February 2017 caused crop losses and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist. These central semiarid areas are projected to move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to an early lean season onset in October, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are also likely in nearby Mutarara District in Tete and Tambara in Manica.

  • The ongoing mice infestation, which is particularly severe in the central and southern regions, is posing a serious threat to second season crops. According to local authorities, in some places the number of mice has reached unprecedented levels. The impact of Fall Armyworm and other pests on second season production continues to be minimal.

  • On average, from June to July, maize grain prices remained stable and are currently below the five-year average by nine percent. Among the falling maize grain prices, the largest monthly drop occurred in Pemba by 25 percent.

Generally July is likely to mark the lowest maize prices for the year before they begin an ascending trend. Maize meal and rice prices slightly decreased or stabilized in July.

CURRENT SITUATION

Currently, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes persist countrywide, except in the central semiarid areas of Chemba, Caia, and Maríngue districts in Sofala Province, which are currently experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Though the cumulative rainfall was above average, its distribution was erratic, particularly in February 2017 when long dry spells caused crop losses and replanting efforts were futile. Also, most of these areas were previously affected by the armed conflict, which had caused disruption of households’ livelihoods. As result, poor households are facing below-average food availability from both the main and second season harvests and limited income-earning opportunities.

Food availability: The main harvest has ended, and the flow of food commodities from producer areas to consumer areas is progressing well. While the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MASA) is finalizing the analysis of its national crop assessment and the food balance sheet, projected figures suggest adequate cereal availability, particularly for maize grain, to meet national consumption needs through March 2018. As typical, second season production, which is ongoing, mostly in southern and central areas, is contributing to food availability and access, but at lower amounts than initially projected due to an unprecedented level of mice consuming and damaging second season crops as well as moisture deficits in localized central semiarid areas that has affected production levels.